Taiwan's Opportunity for 'State to States' Relations

One of the biggest lessons for me from the 2016 presidential election in the United States was how so many political leaders and experts were so wrong. Many Democrats and Republicans alike felt like they lost the election, when in fact they had lost their connection to the country beyond the capital.

Much of my career was  based in Washington, DC, involved in government and public policy. It wasn’t until after I left the White House I began spending a great deal of my time in politics among voters, and that experience has opened my eyes to the importance of work done in the states.

Taiwan's Unique UN Opportunity

Actions taken at the United Nations this last week symbolized the continuation of a dramatic shift in world politics, and presented unique challenges and opportunities for Taiwan going forward.

When bureaucrats in the room laughed at President Trump’s assertion of US sovereignty, they failed to recognize a trend seen most clearly in the 2016 US election and England’s Brexit: a turn away from globalism and a return to state sovereignty and national patriotism. This trend puts Taiwan in a challenging position as it seeks international recognition through the UN.

Trump Counters China's Diplomatic Assault on Taiwan

A September 6 Washington Post column by Josh Rogin advanced a very misleading narrative with regard to US reaction to China’s attack on Taiwan’s international space. The headline read, “Trump is failing to counter China’s diplomatic assault on Taiwan.” This provocative assertion was widely covered in Taiwan and also unfortunately echoed by the Wall Street Journal editorial board on September 11.

Never Forget September 11, 2001

Seventeen years ago this morning, I rose early to prepare for what was to be a memorable day at work. My boss at the time, Vice President Dick Cheney was to receive Australian Prime Minister John Howard for a meeting on Capitol Hill, followed by Prime Minister Howard addressing a joint session of the US Congress.

I was still relatively new in my tenure at the White House and had not attended a joint session of Congress, much less staffed the Vice President for such a meeting. It was an exciting and anxious morning for me.

China's True Splittists: the CCP

Most Americans do not understand the word “splittist.” That does not stop Beijing or any of its international friends from trying to apply the strange label to those of us who think for ourselves rather than take the Communist Party’s version of reality at face value.

We do understand the term “secessionist.” That however refers to those who advocate withdrawal from a union. As the people of Taiwan have never been a part of any union with the People’s Republic of China, we have a hard time seeing this concept as applicable to Taiwan’s relationship with Beijing. So we are still left not quite understanding what Beijing is trying to sell. There is good reason for this, of course. It is nonsense.

Don’t fly low, change the status quo

Seth Godin has an unconventional interpretation of the ancient Greek myth of Icarus, shared in a YouTube video I recently viewed.

Traditionally, the myth is a  cautionary tale against hubris. Icarus’ father Daedalus constructed a pair of wings out of feathers and wax as a means to escape Crete. What most of us instantly recall of this story is Icarus ignoring his father’s warning against flying too high, resulting in the wax melting and Icarus falling to his demise.

Opinion: Trump's 'no more apologizing for America' foreign policy helps Republicans in November

By: Steve Yates

One of the all-time best lines in television and politics was delivered by the late Fred Thompson on “Law and Order.” To his assistant district attorney he advised, “Jack, it’s not enough to do good. You have to be seen doing good.”

So too with presidents and national security. It’s not enough to keep America secure. Voters must feel more secure.

As Xi weakens, time for US and Taiwan to adjust

This article was first published in Taiwan’s Do Post.

My how quickly the establishment narrative can change. For most of the last 18 months, we have been on the receiving end of breathless declarations of US decline, China filling the international leadership vacuum, and Mao revivalist Xi Jinping consolidating power for life.

Now, just a few short weeks into a supposed US-China trade war, the US economy is growing at a stunning 4%, the US stock market remains near record highs, consumer confidence remains high, and talk in Washington is building towards a second round of tax reform to further stimulate the growing economy.

Early warnings of dire economic and political consequences in the US have faded, as China’s retaliation has yet to affect mainstream economic or political life in America.

The story in China is remarkably different. Capitals in Asia are buzzing with reports of economics strains in China and, suddenly, serious questions about the durability of Xi Jinping’s hold on power.

Odds are reports of Xi’s rapid decline may prove as impermanent as reports of his “leader for life” status. What is increasingly clear, however, is that if you were forced today to wager which leader’s tenure and policies would outlive the other’s, the smart bet would be on Donald Trump.

In the early stages of this contest, at least, the US appears to have the stronger hand and may for once be in a position to secure initial concessions from China. Make no mistake, however, this trade contest is likely to continue for years, not months, with many ups and downs. President Trump’s basic policies on trade and China reflect a deep personal passion on his part, and they are fundamental to his electoral college strategy for re-election in 2020.

Given these changes to dominant assumptions, it is critical that leaders in the US and Taiwan adjust course in two major policy areas: economics and defense.

As economic and political risk in China increases, it is imperative that investment, manufacturing, and trade patterns adjust. Neither Taiwan nor US manufacturers can afford continued over-reliance on platforms in China. Taiwan should seek to “onshore” more manufacturing to the US, even if gradually, and US leaders should prioritize facilitation of such moves. Most importantly, Taiwan leaders should propose a bold, high-standards bilateral trade agreement with the US. It would be strategically beneficial to both economies and both nation’s leverage with China.

Just as important, if reports of Xi’s declining political power are true, there is increased risk that he could use attacks on Taiwan (political, economic, or otherwise) to fan nationalism and distract away from other domestic discontent. It is vital that the US and like-minded allies stand in solidarity with the Taiwanese people, strengthen their ability to defend themselves, and blunt Beijing’s efforts to isolate and coerce their leaders.

Now is the time for true leaders to speak up, be bold, and adjust to the risks of a faltering China.